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      name:  <unnamed>
  log type:  text
 opened on:  17 Oct 2023, 08:22:24

. 
. /* Figures 4, 5, and 6 */
. 
. /* Prediction Modeling */
. /* Calibrates probit model using only the Control Group at Time 1 */
. probit vote_for_biden_all college_grad male over60 white married employed lowinc home_owner rural rate
> _reps rate_dems trump_opinion_t1 biden_opinion_t1 ideology_score libconv_index i.party_t1 if delegate=
> =0 & time==1

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -323.45879  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -59.719429  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -49.037855  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -47.094891  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -47.036726  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -47.036525  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -47.036525  

Probit regression                               Number of obs     =        467
                                                LR chi2(17)       =     552.84
                                                Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -47.036525                     Pseudo R2         =     0.8546

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
vote_for_biden_all |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      college_grad |  -.0671415    .441158    -0.15   0.879    -.9317954    .7975124
              male |    .095674   .3226118     0.30   0.767    -.5366335    .7279815
            over60 |  -.5395795   .4213579    -1.28   0.200    -1.365426    .2862668
             white |   .0673513   .4252703     0.16   0.874     -.766163    .9008657
           married |   .0528353   .3575063     0.15   0.883    -.6478641    .7535347
          employed |  -.6028796   .3851109    -1.57   0.117    -1.357683    .1519238
            lowinc |  -.6334589   .4104467    -1.54   0.123     -1.43792    .1710018
        home_owner |  -.7355852   .4343953    -1.69   0.090    -1.586984     .115814
             rural |   .2098017   .4709183     0.45   0.656    -.7131812    1.132785
         rate_reps |  -.0146654   .0081539    -1.80   0.072    -.0306468     .001316
         rate_dems |     .01583   .0075054     2.11   0.035     .0011196    .0305404
  trump_opinion_t1 |   -.292554   .0621109    -4.71   0.000    -.4142892   -.1708188
  biden_opinion_t1 |   .1829269   .0691996     2.64   0.008     .0472982    .3185557
    ideology_score |  -.3885968   .1418806    -2.74   0.006    -.6666777   -.1105159
     libconv_index |   .1321741   .1343562     0.98   0.325    -.1311592    .3955075
                   |
          party_t1 |
                2  |  -.8837338   .5518026    -1.60   0.109    -1.965247    .1977794
                3  |   .0676772   .3693318     0.18   0.855    -.6561999    .7915542
                   |
             _cons |    2.47942   1.077036     2.30   0.021     .3684678    4.590373
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 23 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. 
. /* Uses the probit model to predict probability of voting for Biden for the Participant Group at Time 
> 1 */
. predict vote_for_biden_predicted if vote_for_biden_all !=. & time==1 & delegate==1
(option pr assumed; Pr(vote_for_biden_all))
(5,148 missing values generated)

. 
. /* Positive value ->more likely to vote intend to for Biden than model predicted; negative value ->les
> s likely to intend to vote for Biden than model predicted */
. gen prediction_delta = (vote_for_biden_all - vote_for_biden_predicted) 
(5,148 missing values generated)

. 
. log close
      name:  <unnamed>
  log type:  text
 closed on:  17 Oct 2023, 08:22:29
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